Injuries Make or Break the AL East

TRM...8/2/06

If the Red Sox hope to reach the postseason, the next two months will be as important as any stretch of games this season.  Their inability to close a deadline-trade, coupled with injuries to Varitek, Nixon, and Wakefield, might be the perfect storm that AL playoff contenders were hoping for. 

In a best-case scenario, the Sox will win the AL East - but they will have to do so without their captain and backstop, and behind an unproven rotation after Curt Schilling.  The Yankees have gained significant ground since the All-Star Break, overtaking first place during a stretch in which many believed them to be dead in the water.  The Sox now face the same situation, but time is running out. 

The Yankees were able to keep the pace with the Sox through injuries to Pavano, Matsui, Cano and Sheffield for a number of factors - namely Wang, Cabrera, Cairo, Phillips, and Derek Jeter.  Boston was able to hold onto the division lead under the wings of Ortiz, Manny, and Schilling, but with their current injuries, and New York gaining their injured players and deadline-acquisitions, Boston will have their work cut out for them in the next few weeks.  They will have to keep in sight a now-deeper, soon-to-be healthier, and, overall, a better Yankees squad. 

Consider this.  As of August first, the Yanks and Sox are in a virtual tie for the AL East lead.  The Yanks are ahead, only by percentage points, which means that if the rejuvenated Yankees team plays .500 baseball from here on out, the Sox will need to play .550 baseball in order to win the East.  That's only taking into consideration the season to this juncture.  With their new pinstripers, and the everyday players coming off the DL, expect the Yankees to play close to .600 ball for the next two months.  Given the state of the Red Sox Nation, it appears to be tough for Boston to keep up with New York.  Trying to play .650 baseball on a few bad shoulders, a bum knee, and relying on two bats to carry their offense, will prove to be the straw that breaks Boston's back before the season comes to an end. 

If that scenario plays out, it leaves Boston to fend off a deep wild-card pool of Chicago, Minnesota, Texas, and Toronto; any of which can make a push for the postseason when it matters the most.  What then?  What if Boston settles for the wild-card?  What if they fail to make the playoffs?  One thing is for sure if the Sox don't play this October, is that David Ortiz's incredible year may lose the MVP race to Derek Jeter, who has kept the Yankees afloat through their potentially lethal tough times this year.  For the same reasons that the AL East will be determined in the coming weeks, so too will be the AL MVP race.  If the Sox come away with the division, or even with the wild-card, Ortiz will likely win the MVP - and rightly so.  If the Yankees win the division, especially if Boston lets the wild-card slip away, Derek Jeter will have a legitimate opportunity to win the award; especially without Alex Rodriguez taking local votes away from him, like Manny will do to Ortiz.  Naturally, both Ortiz and Jeter will be the first to tell you that they'd much rather win a World Series ring than an MVP, but you can't help but wonder how this one will play out.