By Justin Townsend

There are many different reasons to like the Red Sox extraordinary $51.1 million bid on Japanese ace Dasuke Matsuzaka, that is unless Dasuke ends up ********** (sorry, it’s the only pun I can think of using with his name).

On a serious note though, the right hander gives the Red Sox 51.1 million reasons why the bid was worth it, and I’ll tell ya why.

On the surface Matsuzaka, like Chien-Ming Wang for the Yankees, gives the Red Sox a potential ace in the prime of his career a chance to pitch atop the

Boston

rotation for more than a couple years. Given that the contract will likely be another 3-year version a lot like Hideki Matsui’s, the Red Sox get a good look at Matsuzaka without being bogged down by a lengthy contract on a player that is still very much a mystery to most.

Almost as importantly, the bid tells the New York Yankees they have the cojones to spend a pretty penny too, even if it means their fans can’t use the famous Steinbrenner-buys-championships argument anymore. Usually this wouldn’t seem like a good point, but after what was reportedly passed up at last year’s trade deadline the Red Sox’s ability to pull the trigger has been at question.

While we’re talking about the Yankees, let us not forget why they were tossed out of the ALCS by the Detroit Tigers—starting pitching. Of the Yankees starters for next season Wang is the only legitimate ace with potential to stay more than a couple years in New York; it only gets worse too, with 43-year old Randy Johnson just a wrong side of the bed away from retirement, a 38-year old Mike Mussina in his twilight and Crashin’ Carl Pavano’s injury prone stay in New York likely to end (4-6, 17 games started, 4.77 ERA between two seasons).

There’s very little doubt why the Yankees traded Gary Sheffield for three Detroit Tiger pitchers, Humberto Sanchez, 23, Kevin Whelan, 22, and Anthony Claggett, 22, all of which look to be a year or two away from the major leagues, perfect time to take Ragin’ Randy and the Moose’s place in the rotation. Given how the Yankees prospered without slugger

Sheffield

for much of last season, this deal might end up being looked at in a couple years as a blockbuster.

No doubt the generous Matsuzaka bid certainly keeps the Yankees from having a fifth starter, but the bid also blocks them from having a legitimate number one or two pitcher in their rotation with Matsuzaka, and, if Sanchez, Whelan and Claggett continue to progress and develop, blocks them from having one of the better, top to bottom young pitching rotations in the majors.

Aside from the obvious block of the Yankees, the other side of the obviousness in this bid is the languish amount of money they paid to get exclusive negotiating rights with Matsuzaka—the apparent reason was to continuously guess about what other teams would bid.

While I may opine just like the rest and probably say much of the same about the $51.1 large ones, experts like Joe Sheehan’s article on Baseball Prospectus have much more elaborate pieces on the subject with information I could never take credit for. In the article he clears up how the Red Sox will make up their large investment to merely talk to Matsuzaka, and it’s not through pink t-shirts or television deals—here’s a hint, it rhymes with WINNING.

There are of course questions about how Matsuzaka will assimilate American culture, put up with the media in

Boston

and the rabid, frothing-at-the-mouth fans that come with the Red Sox. Personally, Matsuzaka has already dealt with crazy media frenzy in

Japan

and has already been to

America

.

The only question that looms usually with new players coming to

Boston

, is whether they’ll embrace the

Boston

media or shrug off the pestering fans. Seeing as nobody knows how Matsuzaka will react to the fan base here, the point seems moot. I’m sure they just don’t want another finger-flippin’ Byung-Hyun Kim incident. Besides, the language barrier could create an atmosphere where he might not even know the heckling, if he ever gets heckled. That last sentence could be a stretch of ignorance, but alas it could ring true for some foreign players.

Additionally, seeing that if the Red Sox don’t sign Matsuzaka they get their bid money back, this gives the Red Sox to negotiate at market price, which is key when dealing with Scott Boras. If they don’t come to an agreement, Matsuzaka will have to go play for Seibu again, make less money than in America and let’s not forget that he has the potential to become an international celebrity much like Yao Ming and Ichiro. If Matsuzaka and

Boras

ask for more than market the Red Sox get their money back, miss out on a pitcher, but in the end show the majors how much money they’re willing to spend and the market price of Barry Zito and Jason Schmidt go up.

Oh and this signing gives the Red Sox another ace without having to sacrifice their minor league system, which they haven’t done too well with the past couple years—Anibel Sanchez, Freddy Sanchez, Matt Murton, Cla Meridith, Hanley Ramirez sound good to anyone? This is something I’m sure the Red Sox brass is rather happy about.

How Matsuzaka pitches under the circumstances has yet to be determined in the whole mix. A lot of speculation is out, and the range of how good he is goes all the way from Hideki Irabu-like to Johan Santana-like. He did fare well in the World Baseball Classic, only MVP, and his charisma in

Boston

is likely to go a long way like Pedro’s did.

In the end the deal could look like a big waste of money or the best deal ever pulled off by Theo Epstein since Jeff Suppan, but isn’t every deal he does? That was a joke, people. A joke.

By Justin Townsend

Welcome back to The Wild Pitch, sorry for the hiatus. A lot of the time I would start what I thought would be a small research study and discover it to be too big for a 700-1000 word article. For better or worse I’ve been doing mucho reading on fantasy baseball, more specifically Sam Walker’s Fantasyland, and stat books, such as Baseball Prospectus 2006, which has doubled my already seemingly expansive baseball knowledge. I find these to be good problems, although they have kept me from writing.

Today I’ve decided to do an update on former stories. I’ve got a knack for continuing research on a story after I’ve finished writing. Often I’ll write a story and wish I had waited a week to get a little better information or come up with a better angle for the story. I’ll also keep following the subject or angle and see how it progresses. This “story” will merely update readers of The Wild Pitch on stories I’ve written.

So, let’s do a little catch up.

·                     Earlier in the year I wrote of Luke Hochevar titled “The ‘Meaningless’ Draft”, and since I’ve read countless articles on the future ace of the Royals. Hochevar has recently signed a significantly large four-year deal with the Royals and begun impressing the Royals management with devastating “stuff”. Along with his contract and approval rating, he’s shown the Royals management he’s not the controversial, risky pick he was the year before when teams held off on picking him until the 40 pick (special shout out to Scotty Boras for that).

            Of course, a lot of people measure a pitcher by his record, but don’t be fooled by Hochevar’s 0-1 record. In the 15.1 innings he pitched in four starts he only gave up two earned runs on two solo home runs. He held opponents to a slim .148 batting average and had a 1.17 ERA. His stellar pitching has impressed the Royals enough to promote him to Double-A Wichita where he’ll play with Alex Gordon and Billy Butler, the organization’s two hitting machines. With Wichita, Hochevar will meet up with former pitching prospect Zach Grienke, whom after a 2005 season worth forgetting, is finding himself again, going 5-2 in his last 10 starts with a slim ERA.

            Like I said before, I’ve been reading a lot of Baseball Prospectus. They recently featured Hochevar in an article that I think people should read. If you do, in a couple years from now you’ll be able to say, “I’ve been reading about that kid Hochevar for years!”

·                     Speaking of Alex Gordon, last week he was named Texas League MVP and hit a home run along with teammate Billy Butler in this year’s Future’s Game during the All-Star break. He’s continued tearing up minor league pitching, hitting .325 with 29 home runs, 100 RBI and 22 stolen bases. Although he’s hitting hard, Dayton Moore has repeatedly said he will not rush prospects through the system like year’s past and it seems Gordon is a season away from the big leagues at least.

·                     Kevin Youkilis has also had a few changes since his active part in that pre-All-Star 19 inning game against the White Sox. First, he’s no longer playing strictly first base for the Red Sox. As some people might notice, the Red Sox have had a bubonic plague of injuries and have resorted to sending up Dustin Pedroia and trading for Eric Hinske. Manny Ramirez’s injury put the Red Sox in a position where they had to use Youkilis’s versatility and Trot Nixon-like heart in left field and use Hinske in right until Wily Mo Pena’s wrist began bothering him and forced the Red Sox to use the waiver wire again to get another Pena, Carlos this time. Carlos Pena spent a weekend in Pawtucket and batted above average and was moved up to Boston, where he played first and Hinske moved to right field.     Another note, is that Youkilis has been out of the lead-off spot and been skidding at the plate. He’s no longer boasting the same irregular 4.52 pitches-per-at-bat (NP/PA), which has lowered to 4.42, and has been moved to anywhere in the line-up from lead-off to clean up to eighth in the order. Regardless of where he plays, Youkilis is continuously putting his all into a losing team’s efforts.

·         One more note about the Red Sox, and I’ll apologize ahead of time if it seems like a kicking a man while he’s done. The Red Sox endured the second worst month in team history, going 9-21 in August. Of course they underwent a plethora of injuries and that definitely hurt them, but in August they were the worst hitting team in all of baseball in two very critical parts of the game: keeping opponents from getting in scoring position and scoring, and getting runners in scoring position and scoring. In July the team went through the same ordeal, but managed to sustain a winning record in July. In August, the team wasn’t so lucky, getting swept by the Kansas City Royals and the New York Yankees at home, in a five-game series.

            It seems like an easy equation to winning a ball game; you score more runs from scoring position than your opponent and you can win. Getting the job done seems a lot harder than on paper, especially with you number three and four hitters out.

So now you’re all caught up. You can finally start playing fantasy football and, of course, you can enjoy a post-season without seeing a Yankees-Red Sox matchup.

By Justin Townsend

Rookies, future-stars, prospects, whatever you want to call them, are the new buzzwords when it comes to baseball, more than probably ever before.

Look at trade deadlines, waiver-wire pick-ups and the draft, and you’ll see the one thing that’s valued more than major league-ready talent is potential major league-ready talent. Ultimately, how a general manager deals with the two will make or break his organization. Scouts and GM’s must evaluate and decide which young players are prospects, or future major league impact players, and which players are minor league everyday players, major league fillers.

Take a quick glance at last week’s trade deadline. Most moves were done to either get prospects or to make room for prospects in some way shape or form.

Let’s start with the Yankees, the assumed winners in this year’s deadline. The Phillies traded Bobby Abreu and Cory Lidle to the Yankees for four minor leaguers; shortstop C.J. Henry, left-hander Matt Smith, catcher Jesus Sanchez and right-hander Carlos Monasterios.

"The Phillies got prospects in this deal, but there were certain guys that, at this point in time, I was unwilling to give up," Cashman said to MLB.com. "[Players such as] Phil Hughes and Tabata, there are a lot of guys I was looking to protect."

Phil Hughes was the Yankee’s 2004 first rounder and Jose Tabata is a very young Venezuelan prospect that has outperformed 2005 draft picks Henry and Austin Jackson. Little had to with what prospects the Phillies would receive; the only player projected to ever make the Phillies is Henry, but not for at least one or two years.

In most ways the blockbuster deal got done because the Phillies were more interested in dumping salary than the mid-tier talent they recieved. In a year the team will have to deal with signing their newest home-grown all-stars Ryan Howard ($355,000 in 2006) and Chase Utley ($500,000 in 2006).

The deal had little to do with getting prospects in the future, but instead securing the prospects they have playing very well for them now. Getting rid of Jim Thome’s contract in the off-season and Bobby Abreu’s, gives the Phillies flexibility to sign a significant player or two in the off-season without losing Utley or Howard to other high-bidding teams.

The cross-town Mets were involved in a big trade as well. Instead of getting big talent like the Yankees or dumping salary like the Phillies, the Mets got relief pitcher Roberto Hernandez and starter Oliver Perez in exchange for 27 year old Xavier Nady, who is having his best year yet.

The trade seems to be one of those deals perfect for both sides. With trading Oliver Perez, the Pirates secure a spot in the rotation for up-and-coming prospect Tom Gorzlanny and dumps supposed prospect Oliver Perez, who after having a great year in 2004 (12-10, 2.98 ERA, 22 years old) has had two consecutive disastrous years, going 7-5 with a 5.85 ERA in 2005 and this season 2-10 and a ******** 6.63 ERA. For Perez, a new start and the opportunity to pitch with two future Hall of Famers (Pedro Martinez and Tom Glavine) instead of future stars Zach Duke and Gorzlanny will help develop into what he is supposed to. Perez also gives the Mets a possible number three starter in the rotation, when and if Glavine leaves this season.

With the deal, the Mets hold onto valued prospect Lastings Milledge and make room for him on the big league roster. In trade rumors himself, Milledge should be happy the Mets held onto him. This secures him that the next year he will probably be with the Mets, that the Mets have confidence in him to be an everyday, productive player at the major league level, and that he gets the chance to play now in the majors at only 21 years old. If he holds off high-fiving fans for a while, the Mets should see some pretty impressive stuff from Milledge, and if not they still have enough in their potent lineup to let Milledge slide for a while, as young players are prone to do.

(Part Two will feature a look at how other teams secured prospects and received them).

TRM…8/2/06

If the Red Sox hope to reach the postseason, the next two months will be as important as any stretch of games this season.  Their inability to close a deadline-trade, coupled with injuries to Varitek, Nixon, and Wakefield, might be the perfect storm that AL playoff contenders were hoping for. 

In a best-case scenario, the Sox will win the AL East – but they will have to do so without their captain and backstop, and behind an unproven rotation after Curt Schilling.  The Yankees have gained significant ground since the All-Star Break, overtaking first place during a stretch in which many believed them to be dead in the water.  The Sox now face the same situation, but time is running out. 

The Yankees were able to keep the pace with the Sox through injuries to Pavano, Matsui, Cano and Sheffield for a number of factors – namely Wang, Cabrera, Cairo, Phillips, and Derek Jeter.  Boston was able to hold onto the division lead under the wings of Ortiz, Manny, and Schilling, but with their current injuries, and New York gaining their injured players and deadline-acquisitions, Boston will have their work cut out for them in the next few weeks.  They will have to keep in sight a now-deeper, soon-to-be healthier, and, overall, a better Yankees squad. 

Consider this.  As of August first, the Yanks and Sox are in a virtual tie for the AL East lead.  The Yanks are ahead, only by percentage points, which means that if the rejuvenated Yankees team plays .500 baseball from here on out, the Sox will need to play .550 baseball in order to win the East.  That’s only taking into consideration the season to this juncture.  With their new pinstripers, and the everyday players coming off the DL, expect the Yankees to play close to .600 ball for the next two months.  Given the state of the Red Sox Nation, it appears to be tough for Boston to keep up with New York.  Trying to play .650 baseball on a few bad shoulders, a bum knee, and relying on two bats to carry their offense, will prove to be the straw that breaks Boston’s back before the season comes to an end. 

If that scenario plays out, it leaves Boston to fend off a deep wild-card pool of Chicago, Minnesota, Texas, and Toronto; any of which can make a push for the postseason when it matters the most.  What then?  What if Boston settles for the wild-card?  What if they fail to make the playoffs?  One thing is for sure if the Sox don’t play this October, is that David Ortiz’s incredible year may lose the MVP race to Derek Jeter, who has kept the Yankees afloat through their potentially lethal tough times this year.  For the same reasons that the AL East will be determined in the coming weeks, so too will be the AL MVP race.  If the Sox come away with the division, or even with the wild-card, Ortiz will likely win the MVP – and rightly so.  If the Yankees win the division, especially if Boston lets the wild-card slip away, Derek Jeter will have a legitimate opportunity to win the award; especially without Alex Rodriguez taking local votes away from him, like Manny will do to Ortiz.  Naturally, both Ortiz and Jeter will be the first to tell you that they’d much rather win a World Series ring than an MVP, but you can’t help but wonder how this one will play out. 

By: Justin Townsend

For 6 hours and 19 minutes the Chicago White Sox and Boston Red Sox battled through 19 innings, 150 Plate Appearances and 784 pitches until a victor could be named.

Even though both teams clearly fought like dogs, nobody saw more action than Red Sox first basemen Kevin Youkilis.

For years Youkilis has been known throughout the league as The Greek God of Walks, as coined by Oakland GM Billy Beane, for his skill for knowing the strike zone like the back of his hand. During the marathon game with the Red Sox, Chicago manager Ozzie Guillen, Jose Contreras and the White Sox found out just how good Youkilis can be.

In the course of the marathon game Youkilis came to the plate nine times and although he left the game hitless, his 0-5 game wasn’t completely fruitless, scoring twice and seeing a remarkable 50 pitches, an average of 5.5 pitches per plate appearance.

Of the 399 pitches thrown by White Sox pitchers Youkilis saw an eighth and played a big part in making undefeated Jose Contreras throw 114 pitches, forcing Guillen to pull him after only 6 innings pitched.

In his first full season playing everyday, Youkilis is showing critics he’s no longer the platoon or utility player he was a year ago, but instead an everyday, key reason why the Red Sox are atop the AL East this season.

At the beginning of the season, Coco Crisp was slated to start in the lead-off spot in the Red Sox lineup, but when he left early April with a broken finger, Youkilis took the responsibility of getting on base for the clean-up crew of David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez.

So far he’s done his job. Right now Youkilis is eighth in the AL in on-base percentage and seventh in walks behind six established AL power-hitters with over 20 home runs and 50 RBI.

Along with those honors Youkilis is leading the major leagues in one of the most underrated statistics, number of pitches per plate appearance (NP/PA) with 4.52. Compared to Johnny Damon’s 4.04 NP/PA and Coco Crisp’s 3.91 and Youkilis is showing he’s one of the best leadoff hitters in the game and the right man leading off the Red Sox lineup.

And even though he is recognizably slower than Damon and Crisp, he does make pitchers battle and throw a lot of pitches. Managers are frequently forced to pull their starters early in the game much like when Ozzie Guillen was forced to do with Contreras after only six innings Sunday, and if the game wasn’t the day before the All-Star break, the Chicago White Sox bullpen could be severely stretched out.

Come August 4-6 the White Sox will come to Boston and meet Kevin Youkilis again. During that series be sure to see the way White Sox starters face Youkilis. Given the race they’ll be in with the Tigers and the Twins they’ll need their starters to give Bobby Jenks and the bullpen some help.

Youkilis might be the one sabotage that plan.

Also, right now the Red Sox are atop the AL East and if they make the playoffs a guy like Youkilis might be a big reason why they could go the distance. In a seven game series Youkilis could wear down starting pitchers and bullpens to pitch a lot of innings.

It would be an understatement to say the one-year, $354,600 deal the Red Sox signed with Youkilis in March is looking like a good move.

(Download hitting_numbers.xls for the work I did for this piece)

By Justin Townsend

We all know what wins ball games. Not chewing a certain type of bubblegum or touching every step in the dugout with both feet or wearing the same pair of Fruit of the Looms during win streaks; it doesn’t take more than a fifth grader’s logic to figure this one out either.

It’s possibly the easiest equation in baseball since the batting average: Runs Scored minus Runs Allowed (RS-RA). Yes, maybe on base percentage plus slugging ( OPS) is a good tool to finding a complete hitter and the more complete hitters on a team the more potential runs can be scored, but ultimately what does winning ball games come down to? Scoring more runs than your opponent; the runs you score versus the runs your opponent scores. How easy could it be?

Just ask the Kansas City Royals (which you’ll do a lot of if you read this blog often enough).

With a lineup deemed the weakest power hitting team in the majors, there was no question the first two months why the Royals were doing so badly. Without a decent power hitter to generate runs like most teams in the American League, the team was forced to bring in runs the ol’ fashion way; running the bases and driving in runners in scoring position (RISP). It seems simple, right? The closer they are to home the easier it is to score. Instead of needing a double, triple or home run to score a runner from first, all a hitter needs is a well-placed single to drive in a runner on second or third, and if a runner is on third a sac fly will do the trick.

Having to score runs the old fashion way leaves the Royals in a difficult conundrum (like most teams with the same situation): once and if hitters get into scoring position, hitters then need to produce with runners in scoring position or else they’ll score a low amount of runs if any runs at all. Throw into the mix they had no legitimate base stealing threat until Joey Gathright, and they’ll be a team that has a hard time scoring more runs than their opponent.

Take into account the Royals’ first two complete months of baseball. In March/April 54 of the Royals’ 83 runs were scored from RISP, while they allowed 113 runners from opponents to score from scoring position (over half). Coincidentally the low run production gave the Royals a 5-17 record.

Continuing on to May, the Royals again failed to drive in RISP (80 runs from 196 RISP) and allowed the opposition to score most of their runs from scoring position (113 runs from 238 RISP). Good for an 8-21 record.

Compare the Royals numbers to a winning team such as the New York Yankees’ numbers and clear statistical evidence will show runs scored from RISP are essential in winning ball games.

For instance, in March/April the Yankees scored 26 more runs than opponents from RISP and ended with a 13-10 record. Royals were scored on 37 more times and ended with a 5-17 record. In May, much of the same occurred. The Yankees scored 30 more runs from RISP and ended with an 18-10 record. The Royals let up 33 more runs and ended with an 8-21 record.

So when tides turned, or corn fields sprouted, and Kansas City started driving in runners from scoring position, it came to no surprise that their record got better, going 13-14 in June.

The numbers show why their record improved also. In June they finally scored more runs than their opponents from RISP, 102-98. To show the flipside, the Yankees were outscored in the category by 16 runs and they ended June with a 14-12 record.

If the Royals continue to go without a legitimate power hitter they’ll find themselves riding the wave of their clutch hitting like they did in June, which they can only hope will continue.

(Instead of giving you 90 link, I’ve provided my file where I compiled my work. If you like the numbers game, enjoy!)Download RISP.xls

by TRM…6/29/2006

Whoever said that you “need to spend money to make money” sure wasn’t the owner of a small-market MLB franchise.  The issue has been debated inside and out in recent history, but quick-fixes like revenue sharing or moving a franchise to a new city is about as useful as a band-aid on gunshot wound.  Teams who want so succeed (on the field and at the bank) must first do so in the clubhouse.  A core group of well-mannered, mediocre players is a start . . . but it is imperative to have one or two “star players” making the big bucks. 

Why?  Again, it’s a matter of spending money to make money.  Big-contract players are investments.  They will win ballgames, put butts in seats, and money back into the ball club.  Perennial examples include Atlanta, Boston, and New York, but other teams have caught on recently, too.  Detroit added Pudge, Anaheim signed Vlad, and the Mets have added Beltran and a few others, but it all shows that a big-name player in any city will help the ball club both at the plate and at the gate. 

So, what’s the big deal?  Why can’t Tampa Bay, Kansas City, or the late, Montreal Expos create a “respectable” (for lack of a better term) franchise around one or two superstars?  In most cases, they’re caught in a viscous cycle of dependent-events.  Increase in attendance also increases revenue – which allows teams to sign expensive, big-name players.  The players help the team win games, and fans flock to see the spectacle.  More fans = more money, and the cycle continues.  Remove any one of these elements, and you’re stuck at the bottom – and we know how the view is from there.  Granted, it’s not easy to get on the right track, but once a team does it is somewhat tough to fall-off.  (Fire sales, aside.) 

Let’s take a look at what does work.  The Yankees are on pace to draw over 4 million fans, again, this season.  They averaged about 50,000 fans per home game in 2005, breaking the 1-million mark on their 22nd game . . . and then passing Tampa’s and Kansas City’s season totals on their 25th and 30th games, respectively.  Think about that . . . the Yankees drew more fans in 30 games than two other franchises combined!  (Furthermore, if you subtract the KC-TB total from NY’s 2005 total, the difference is still about 200,000 more fans than KC’s total attendance.)  Again, fans=money=payroll=superstars=winning=fans.  What’s so hard about that? 

Well, maybe a better question is what are the bottom-feeders doing wrong?  They usually have an outstanding fan-base, as is the case in Pittsburgh, and Kansas City for example.  They have the foundation in home-grown talent . . . just ask Johnny Damon, Carlos Beltran, Vlad, A-Rod . . . wait a minute.  Maybe that’s it. 

Top-tier teams are appealing to top-talented players because the teams are willing to pay top-dollar.  Bottom-tier teams will either trade stars away for young prospects, or lose out in the free agent game.  Or . . . why don’t the teams at the bottom, who need a superstar, just pay the deserving player enough to keep him in town?  Of course the owners can afford it, don’t believe that for a second – they all have enough money.  You don’t become an owner of a Major League team by being dead-broke . . . maybe they’re just not willing to invest it in their ball club.  But it’s still that simple. Get a star, win some games, draw dome fans, make your money back, and there you go – you’re in the right cycle. 

Just imagine what it would be like if the 1994 Expos remained in-tact.  What if the ’97 Marlins didn’t have their fire sale?  And what kind of American League powerhouse would Kansas City be with Damon, Beltran, Dye and Sweeny? 

“If you build it, they will come,” works the other way, too.

Thursday, June 22, 2006